Thursday, December 07, 2006

Someone Agrees With My Expert Opinion


Remember last week when I said the Birds need to tear it down and blow it up on defense, but the offense only needs some minor changes? Well, according to yesterday's Daily News, an AFC Scout agrees with me. This is a very interesting read. Enjoy:

THE EAGLES are a wobbly 6-6 with just two wins in their last seven games. But they live in the land of opportunity, the NFC, where second and third and fourth chances seem to grow on trees; where it's never over until it's over. And even then, it's still not over.

So, it's still OK to dream. Still OK to believe that the Eagles maybe, just maybe will emerge from the December chaos with a playoff invitation.

At some point, though, maybe on New Year's Day or maybe a week or 2 or 3 later, this season is going to end and thoughts both inside the NovaCare Complex and out are going to turn to next season.

Everyone has an opinion on what the Eagles need to do in the offseason to become a legitimate Super Bowl contender again. You have one. I have one. Their middle linebacker has one.

Sometimes you can see something more clearly from a distance than from up close, though. So I decided to seek an outside opinion. Called a respected AFC personnel man I've known for more than 20 years. He is well-versed on the Eagles because they are one of 12 teams he is responsible for breaking down and evaluating. He has watched hours of tape on them and seen several of their games in person.

I asked him to put himself in general manager Tom Heckert's seat and tell me what he sees - and doesn't see - when he looks at the Eagles' roster.

Some of his conclusions:

• The offense is, for the most part, fine. Re-sign Donté Stallworth. Add another No. 3-type wideout. Add another running back, preferably a bigger short-yardage/goal-line-type guy to rotate with Brian Westbrook.

Re-sign Jeff Garcia as backup insurance for Donovan McNabb in case he isn't ready to go by next September or gets hurt again. Then call it a day.

• The most pressing problem defensively isn't the front four or even the linebackers. It's the secondary. Cornerback and safety need to be high priorities in both free agency and the draft. Lito Sheppard is the only "A" cornerback they have, and his size (5-10) is a problem against the league's taller wide receivers. Sheldon Brown can't tackle and has regressed as a cover man. Free safety Brian Dawkins is on the downside of his career and has a year, maybe 2, left as a starter. Mike Lewis isn't worth re-signing and his replacement, Sean Considine, will never be anything more than a good special-teams player.

• Put Dhani Jones and Matt McCoy on the next flight out of Philadelphia. Neither can play. Chris Gocong, the Eagles' 2005 third-round pick, should be able to step in and start in Jones' strongside spot next season, assuming his neck injury isn't a recurring problem. Omar Gaither is good enough to replace McCoy on the weakside. But the Eagles need to draft an eventual replacement for middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter. He's strictly an inside run-stopper with no more than 2 semiproductive years left. If the Eagles are planning to eventually move Gaither into Trotter's spot, then they need to bring in a weakside linebacker. Shawn Barber is perfect in the nickel role he's in. His knees wouldn't hold up to an every-down pounding.

• Eagles fans need to get off Brodrick Bunkley's case. Yes, he needed to be productive as a rookie. But that's yesterday's news. Bottom line: He's still going to be a very good player.

• The Eagles weren't idiots in giving defensive tackle Mike Patterson a contract extension so soon. Patterson is a good player who is only going to get better. He and Bunkley will give the Eagles a solid tackle tandem for years. Darwin Walker is too inconsistent. Sam Rayburn showed promise his first couple of years but hasn't done much since. One of the Eagles' free-agency priorities should be a 325-pound, sun-blocking defensive tackle to back up Patterson and Bunkley and stop the bleeding when teams start gashing them with the run.

• The Eagles will never get their money's worth from Jevon Kearse or Darren Howard. They overrated the abilities of both. The emergence of '05 fifth-round pick Trent Cole offsets that a little bit, but not enough. Once Bunkley starts making a contribution inside, that should make the ends a little more productive. They're still going to need to add another defensive end in the offseason, though, because Juqua Thomas is going to attract interest from a number of 3-4 teams that like him as a pass-rushing linebacker. Jerome McDougle needs to be on the same flight with Jones and McCoy.

The Eagles like Stallworth. A lot. They haven't attempted to re-sign him yet because they wanted to see if he could stay healthy for more than a couple of games before they throw a lot of money at him.

In the six games he's been at or close to 100 percent physically this season, he has 27 receptions and four touchdowns and is averaging 20.6 yards per catch. The problem is, the more productive he is in the remaining games, the more free-agent suitors he will have and the larger his price tag will get.

But the AFC personnel man believes re-signing him is an absolute must for the Eagles. "If Stallworth's out there, it's not a bad skill group," he said. "But they need him - or somebody like him - to push [Reggie] Brown. Because Brown is no better than a No. 2. And they need to add another [No. 3] receiver. God bless Hank Baskett. He's a nice story. But he is who he is. L.J. Smith has the ability to be in the top tier of tight ends in the league, but he has to become more consistent."

He believes it's mandatory that the Eagles bring in a bigger running back to back up Westbrook. Like Baskett, Correll Buckhalter is a nice, heartwarming story, and there's a place for him in a three-back rotation.

But the personnel man feels the Eagles need a pile-mover.

"They need another runner," he said. "They really don't have another runner besides Westbrook right now. They have a bunch of other guys back there, but none of them can play.

"I thought they were going to get T.J. Duckett this summer. That would have been a good combination. He was productive in Atlanta down near the goal line. Had 26 or something touchdowns in 3 years. I think they need that."

The scout likes the Eagles' offensive line. Thinks right guard Shawn Andrews and center Jamaal Jackson are outstanding young players. Thinks 33-year-old right tackle Jon Runyan still is playing at a very high level and has another 2 or 3 good years left. Thinks rookie second-rounder Winston Justice, who has been inactive for all 12 games, was a good pick who will make a fine left-tackle replacement for William Thomas, perhaps as soon as next year. Thinks rookie fourth-rounder Max Jean-Gilles was another good pick who probably will replace Todd Herremans at left guard next season.

"Their offensive line is going to be very good for the foreseeable future," he said. "I went back and looked at preseason tape of Justice and Gilles and both of them are going to be pretty good. Justice isn't playing because they ended up getting probably better play out of Thomas than they expected. So there's been no need to play him yet. They're getting ripped because he's a second-round pick and isn't playing. But so what? Three years from now, they'll be going, 'Hey, that was a pretty good pick.' "

Defensively, the scout has concerns about the Eagles' secondary. Big concerns.

"They've got some major issues in the secondary," he said. "That's where I think the problem is going to be in the next couple of years. Lito is a pretty good corner, but his size hurts him. Brown is a 'B' corner at best. Dawkins is definitely on the downside, and they don't have another safety. Other than Sheppard, Dawkins right now might be the best guy in their secondary. And that's not good. At this stage of his career, you want him to be the fourth best guy.

"They're going to have to draft a corner high next year. I don't think they'll be willing to spend a lot of money on one in free agency because that's one of those positions that scares you [in free agency]. You don't know what you're getting."

The scout thinks the Eagles also need to find two new safeties, one to eventually replace Dawkins and another to be their long-term strong safety. He doesn't think Sean Considine is the answer at either.

"I thought I was going to like Considine," he said. "Because he was tackling on special teams when he was just doing that.

But now that he's playing [on defense], he's getting exposed. He's just a guy."

Up front, the Eagles have drawn heavy criticism for Bunkley's failure to contribute this season and for signing Patterson, their '05 No. 1 pick, to a long-term extension.

"Patterson is as strong as [bleep]," the AFC personnel guy said. "And Bunkley's going to be fine. Rookie defensive linemen, particularly tackles, take time. People want these guys to come in here and be Warren Sapp from day one. It doesn't happen. People have to be patient with guys like that."

The scout feels the Eagles' biggest problem at the defensive-end position right now is the small contribution they're getting from Howard, who was signed as a free agent last offseason.

"They're just not getting very good play from him right now," he said. "That's the one that's hurt them a little bit up front. He's just not making a lot of plays. He always plays hard, but sometimes, you just don't know.

"I mean, Jevon isn't what they thought they were going to get when they got him, either. That's the problem with signing these free agents. I'd much rather pay my own guys, and the Eagles have done that. But if you guess wrong a couple of times - like they did with McDougle, like they did with McCoy and some of other linebackers they've drafted - then you've got to step out of the box and take a chance on free agents. And a lot of times, that's a bigger crapshoot than the draft."
I dare my buddies like the Captain and Mike B. to dispute what this guy says. I have to admit, I thought Sheldon was more highly valued throughout the league. I suppose I was wrong.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Please switch hands when the one of them gets tired of patting your back. Failure to do could result in a repetative motion type injury.

Anonymous said...

"respected AFC personnel man I've known for more than 20 years. He is well-versed on the Eagles because they are one of 12 teams he is responsible for breaking down and evaluating. He has watched hours of tape on them and seen several of their games in person."

Now, for the most part we play each AFC team once every four years, so to say the Eagles are one of the 12 teams this ONE scout studies hours of tape on is a joke. He may watch tape to evaluate FA's or in the season that his team is scheduled to play but thats it.






Because 1 AFC Scout says it doesn't make it true. Who's to say this is a scout for the Browns or better a team that hasn't played the Birds in 2 years. I agree with some of his views, but Corner is not a pressing need. Sheldon and Lito are two of the best tackling corners I've ever seen, much better than what we've had here. Please tell me a team with 2 better corners in the League? Let's look at our hated rival, they have 1 and he gets toasted on occasion.

McCoy, can we truely evaluate this guy after 10 games in which we've gotten no pressure and have been behind thus teams have luxury of running and passing. We know this defense was built to get pressure and play with a lead. Additionally he's fought a shoulder injury. I don't know if he can play, but I can't bury him after 10 games.

Big BACk: I don't buy this one in 2006. Do we need a RB who's bigger than Westbrook, sure but to say we need a 245lb RB to have a chance is bull shit. Other than the Steelers w/ fat ass last year show me the last SB winner w/ a Big Back? Lets look at this years contenders, SD, Dallas, Chicago. They don't have a "Big Back" Unless you consider 220 big. Buck is listed at 217 and there's 1 million Buckhalter's out there.

DE: Huge disappointmetn, Kearse went down and the pressure since the Boys game hasn't been there. Howard looked all World against the Boys awful O Line, but has been invisible since. Biggest problem is the lack of pressure from our front 4.

We're not dead yet, and even if we fall short again this year (QB is out) I don't think its time to start over. Add yes, but demolish no.